“If he’s ready for the step, it means that we are witnessing a dictator who is even worse than Stalin.” “This is the last step for him in a sense that this is a suicidal” move, Kolesnikov said. Kolesnikov described Putin’s nuclear threats as a reflection of growing desperation. Ukraine vowed to press its counteroffensive despite the Russian rhetoric. and its allies have said they are taking Putin’s threats seriously but will not yield to what they describe as blackmail to force the West to abandon Ukraine. Key Words: Musk’s purported peace plan for Ukraine draws condemnation from diplomat, statesmen and chess championĪlso: Elon Musk sparks outrage in Ukraine over Russia tweets “He still believes that he will get his way in the long showdown with the West, where the situation on the Ukrainian front line is just one important, but not decisive, element,” Belkovsky said.Īt the same time, Putin threatened to use “all means available” to defend the newly annexed Ukrainian territories in a blunt attempt to force Ukraine and its Western allies to back off. Putin wants the West to tacitly accept the current status quo in Ukraine, resume energy cooperation with Russia, lift the most crippling sanctions and unfreeze Russian assets, Belkovsky said. By reducing the gas flow to Europe and striking a deal with OPEC to reduce oil output, he could drive prices up and raise pressure on the U.S. Insiders who have closely studied Putin’s thinking say he still believes he can emerge as a winner.īelkovsky argued that Putin hopes to win by using energy as an instrument of pressure. Russians have eagerly embraced Putin’s promises to restore their country’s grandeur amid oil-driven economic prosperity, and they have been largely indifferent to the Kremlin’s relentless crackdown on political freedoms. He has repeatedly described the turbulent rule of his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, as a time of decay when national riches were pilfered by Kremlin-connected tycoons and the West while millions were plunged into poverty. The widening turmoil marks a dramatic contrast with the image of stability Putin has cultivated since taking helm in 2000. “The infighting between powerful clans in Putin’s entourage could destabilize the system and significantly weaken Putin’s control over the situation in the country,” Belkovsky said. The Kremlin has done nothing to halt the criticism, a signal that Putin could use it to set the stage for a major shakeup of the top brass and blame them for the defeats. The military setbacks also drew public insults from some of Putin’s top lieutenants directed toward military leaders. He disrupted the foundation of stability,” he said. “After the partial mobilization, it’s impossible to explain to anyone that he stabilized the system. The mobilization, Kolesnikov noted, has eroded Putin’s core support base and set the stage for potential political upheavals. Stanislav Belkovsky, a longtime political consultant with extensive contacts among the ruling class, described the invasion as a mechanism of “self-destruction for Putin, his regime and the Russian Federation.” Now they are all stained by blood, and they all understand they have nowhere to run.” “None of them wanted to see the developments unfold in such a way just because they are going to lose everything. Mikhail Zygar, a journalist who has had extensive contacts among the Kremlin elite and published a bestselling book about Putin and his entourage, noted that the invasion came as a complete surprise not only for the public but for Putin’s closest associates. “And he is going straight ahead to big, big problems.”īy unleashing the disastrous war in Ukraine, Europe’s largest military conflict since World War II, Putin has broken an unwritten social contract in which Russians tacitly agreed to forgo post-Soviet political freedoms in exchange for relative prosperity and internal stability. He did it himself,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. “This is really a hard moment for him, but he can’t accuse anyone else.
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